Wheeler's Weather Cycles by Robert A. Nelson
Professor Raymond P. Wheeler (University of Kansas) compiled 20 centuries of historical records, and concluded from his
studies that there exists a most important 100-year-cycle of climatic changes that influences human affairs in a profound
manner.
The cycle occurs in four distinct phases, which are descriptive of worldwide conditions rather than specific areas. The
four phases are disturbed by secondary leads and delays --- as much as 10 years --- in isolated and widely separated areas.Prof.
Wheeler stated:
"The climatic curve is intended to represent --- as far as one curve can --- the weather trend in the world as a whole
at any one time. The curve has no absolute significance. The meaning of the curve at any one time is relative to the pattern
of the 100-year old cycle as a whole."
The 100-year weather cycle and its phases are not of precisely equal duration. The cycle can contract to 70 years or expand
to 120. The cycle is divided into a warm and a cold phase, each of which has a wet and dry period. Because people are affected
by weather, the cycles of weather produce similar patterns of behavior and events in history during the same phases of the
century-long weather cycle. The phases are: (1) Cold-Dry, (2) Warm-Wet, (3) Warm-Dry, and (4) Cold-Wet. We are now in a cold-dry
phase, which will prevail until about 2000 A.D.
Dr. Wheeler extended his research to reveal a continuous, universal cultural pattern of "mechanism" alternating with "humanism"
that occurs throughout history synchronously with the 100-year weather cycle. During the warm and humanistic phases of the
historical weather cycle, emphasis is placed on holistics: the whole person's relationship to the world and society, basic
laws of nature, modernistic art and architecture, and political "statism" emphasizing nationalism, the welfare of the nation
over that of individuals. In the extreme case, dictatorships and other "absolute" forms of tyrannical government emerge, including
communism and socialism. Major international wars come to pass during every warm phase of the 100-year weather cycle, when
nations are powerful enough to wage such wars. During the emergence of the holistic trend, this statism degenerates into despotism
in its many forms. The warm weather effectively decreases human energies and birthrates, and eventually brings about economic
depression and social dependence that cannot support a war effort. Aristocratic forms of social organization prevail, rather
than democracy. Warm weather produces luxury, small families, "golden ages", and "classical" literature and art. Business
booms at the end of a warm cycle, when temperatures are falling and a cold-wet phase is about to begin. Depression sets in
thereafter. Such a scenario was last in effect in 1975.
During the cold and mechanistic phases of the historical weather cycle, human thought and activity is largely directed
at "units" rather than whole systems: atoms, cells, numbers, individual responses, classification of data, and complexity
of detail. Cold climates make us aggressive and independent, and promote revolution, civil war, and anarchy, which leads eventually
and ultimately to popular reforms under democratic societies, large families, simple lifestyles, "romantic" literature and
"dark ages". Over 90% of the rulers and leaders who have been titled "great" and called "good" by historians held their positions
during the cold-dry nation-building phases of the 100-year weather cycle. They helped lead their people out of the chaos marked
by class riots, assassinations, and sabotage. Dr. Wheeler wrote:
"In short, there has been a pattern on the cold side that has transposed from one cold period to another throughout history,
a pattern whose extreme form has been anarchy pure and simple, ranging from wars, intrigue and treachery among the governors
and their loyal followers to commercial war, race and religious riots, and armed civil war among the governed. All this is
the fanatic aspect of cold times. The "lethargic" aspect has always assumed the form of neglect, debauchery, and extravagance
on the part of the rulers and the upper classes, and listlessness, pauperism, begging, itineracy, rapine and vagabondage among
the lower classes.
"[The cold-dry phase is characterized by] General individualism, with weak governments, migrations, and other mob actions
such as race riots. Class struggles, and civil wars ranging from palace intrigues to revolutions occur during the general
anarchy of the Cold-Dry period. People are cosmopolitan and epicurean, borrowing culture and living by the superficial and
skeptical philosophies.
"[The cold-dry phase is marked by major geophysical phenomena, including] an increase in the severity of earthquakes and
volcanoes... a lowering of continental altitudes, with marine invasions on the upswings and mountain building on the downswings."
Weather is coldest during the cold-dry phase. Near the end of the cold-dry phase, societies become stabilized by strong
leadership, reformed governments, and a revival of nationalism. The wars in this phase are expansionary and imperialistic.
The transition from the cold-dry to the following warm-wet period is characterized by a revival of learning, burgeoning genius,
industrial revolution, and bountiful crops. Human behavior is improved by the high energy level:
"With increased vigor as a base (whatever the physiological causes may be), optimum conditions for an abundance of available
energy for work occur during the period of climatic normality and on the upward crossing, or transition, from cold to warm.
This is the "springtime" of the climatic cycle, while the preceding cold period was the "wintertime". On the upswing, more
than in any other place on the cycle, the human race possesses energy, above that necessary for a maintenance of the physiological
engine... Here, mental and physical energy are at a maximum: hence the appearance of both good leadership and good followership;
economic and political aggressiveness and enthusiasm; ability to exercise more self-control and make better judgments; predominance
of constructive measures and the absence of decadent modes of behavior. With all of these are associated a greater incidence
of genius, a generally higher birthrate, a more stable behavior, and a higher moral tone of society. Moreover, physical conditions
are then the most favorable for economic prosperity and for the growth of stationary societies, dominated by city life, for
rainfall is ample and crops are good.
"The Golden Ages of history, the best in human health and leadership, cultural output, the great periods of economic and
political growth and expansion, have occurred after a toughening process has been going on that has revitalized the race and
the biological level. Moreover, during cold times cultures came in contact with one another during migrations, travel exploration
and colonization --- all of which extended to some extent into the earlier part of the warm period.
"In the hands of a new generation, a fresh natural spirit wells up, and revolts occur against frustration. Enthusiasm,
optimism, and aggressiveness, organized through a social revolution, result in a new state... As democratic government continues,
it tends to become bureaucratic --- either in the hands of leftovers from the previously dominant aristocracy or in the hands
of a new generation of rulers who have come into power through intrigue, wealth or some other form of leverage. A new set
of rebellions breaks out following the dry years of the cold side; and during these rebellions, effort is made to overcome
the evils of decadence in the democratic pattern, or the tyranny left over from the previous warm times...
"A strong leader comes to the front. A new Golden Age is on, and a new cycle of imperialism begins. The revolutions result
at first in the democratic reforms, because they begin on the cold side. Were it to remain cold, these reforms would remain;
but as it becomes warmer, the more power the "radical" party assumes.
"After a reign of terror, the new spirit coalesces into a strong, centralized government which, from the standpoint of
individual rights, is reactionary.
"During cold times the government usually attempts to control the persecution of racial or other minorities, but during
the warm droughts, persecutions almost always have been government-sanctioned or government-promoted events.
"The warm-wet phase sees the climax of organized accomplishments characterized by cooperative, integrated efforts rather
than individual achievements. Governments become centralized and inflexible.
"During periods of warm-dry weather, "good" (i.e., democratic) governments decline and decay under bureaucratic tyranny
and plutocracy or dictatorial oligarchy. Totalitarian governments reach their climax when temperatures are highest during
the warm-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle. Concerning this, Dr. Wheeler wrote:
"It is only on the upswing and during the early part of the warm period that strong governments manifested "good" qualities
such as liberality, constructiveness, benevolence, humanitarianism, foresight and stability.
"As the warm period continues, as imperialism increases, and as the state becomes militarized, the reactionary movement
becomes absolutistic and totalitarian, whether under a king, a Duce, a Fuhrer or a "dictatorship of the proletariat". The
latter, by the way, is a complete misnomer as far as realities are concerned. There is no such thing as a dictatorship of
the proletariat. The only way in which the proletariat has ever "ruled" at any time in history --- and the only way in which
it can rule --- is through truly democratic movements.
"Sometimes there is a cold break in a warm period (but not a true cold phase), usually at the peak of the sunspot cycle.
Then the general energy level of the populace begins to rise, and civil wars erupt. A reformed government with new leadership
then comes to power...
"Thus, when it turns cold, the individual thinks of himself first. A combination of increased energy, hardship, discontent;
an over-centralized and tyrannical government; disgust with growing decadence, spurs him to fight for his individual rights.
Here comes the realization that society can be improved only through the work and free expression of the capable individual.
"But because the cool break is only an interruption (only one to ten years) of the longer overall warm phase, the democratic
reforms implemented then cannot survive. The state subsequently depletes its economy and its people, body and soul, in continual
warfare until such capabilities become utterly exhausted by the inevitable subsequent extreme warm temperatures and drought.
Dr. Wheeler explained such behavior thus:
"There are, in general, two categories into which forms of insanity fall. While these are not inclusive, they cover the
majority of cases. The one category includes depression, lethargy, seclusion, flight from reality, indifference, lack of emotional
tone, schizophrenia, inaction. The other includes elation, overactivity, mania, excessive emotionality, belligerence and dangerous
forms of paranoia. Mental deterioration or decline, then, expresses itself either way, dividing most individuals into these
two psychotic groups. On the other hand, the normal individual will fluctuate, under pressure, from one mood --- the depressed
and indifferent --- to the other --- the manic and overactive. In an extreme form, either mood is a sign of weakness.
"Societies revealed many of the same characteristics when they became unstable, or went into decline, on the warm side;
for it was here that there broke out fanaticism, cruelty, and intolerance as measured by inquisitions, persecutions, pogroms,
massacres, and tortures, all state-promoted. Either indifference of fanaticism in a people, then, is a sign of weakness.
"It turned out that the more democratic countries or states generally declined through indifference, while the totalitarian
and more dynamic states declined through fanaticism. The first political "psychosis" was more often Western, and the latter,
Eastern; or, the first characterized by older states that had gone through several cycles; the second, the younger states
of more recent unification. In any case, the appearance of these traits was certain indication of an imminent collapse into
civil war.
"Again, a combination of causes --- economic, political, psychological, biological, and climatic --- leads to the next
phase in the cycle of events. Before political unity has declined, and while fanaticism is still controlling governmental
policy, temperatures start dropping, and the national spirit revives and plays into the hands of a decadent and despotic leadership.
This imperialism bursts forth once more and international wars break out on the warm side of the downswing.
"We have noted that there is a strong tendency for state-promoted persecutions, pogroms, and massacres to occur during
the warm-dry phases of the 100-year cycle. A graphic example is the horrible treatment by the [Nazis] of Jews in World War
II.
"All of this results from the fact that, whenever it is warm for an extended period, the individual becomes less important.
It is then that he is killed with the least compunction; it is then that the fanatic sacrifice for the state reaches its highest
combination of circumstances...
"Wars fought during downswings of the weather cycle have always evidenced more betrayals and sabotage, and less resistance
to the invasion, even inviting it at times.
"The transition to the subsequent cold-wet period is marked by decadence, which degenerates further to widespread cruelty,
slavery, and slaughter, further to widespread cruelty, slavery, and slaughter, as in WW2. When the average temperature falls
and rainfall increases, a general revival commences with good crops and increased activity.
"During the cold-wet phase of the Wheeler Weather Cycle, government and business become decentralized. Individualism revives
in a natural, emancipated behavior. Art becomes simpler, education is increasingly "mechanistic". These trends eventually
climax in the anarchy characteristic of the cold-dry phase which follows.
"Absolutist governments will not thrive in a cold phase, when the invigorating or uncomfortable weather brings out increased
expression of social discontent.
"The cold-wet phase is characterized by large sunspots appearing temporarily in a shortened sunspot cycle, and displays
of the aurora borealis extending to temperate zones, lower temperatures, and increased storminess. The cold phases of the
100-year weather cycle are interrupted by a temperature rise during the sunspot maximum. Society experiences an increased
birthrate, improved general health and mental vigor, mass migrations of the populace to rural areas, economic prosperity,
international trade, and other forms of intercultural exchange."
Dr. Wheeler also was able to elucidate the presence of 500-year cycles of climate throughout 2,500 years of history. Alternate
500-year cycles produce a secondary climax of extreme cold and drought coupled with massive migrations and great revolutions
of society. The end of each second 500-year cycle also marks the end of a 1,000-year cycle which Dr. Wheeler also detected.
The 1,000-year cycle has a very warm period in its center. Alternate 500-year cycles always end during the warm phase in the
middle of the 1,000-year cycle.
The 500-year cycle of weather is distinguished by the unusual severity of every fifth cold phase in the 100-year cycle.
These have occurred in the 5th century BC, and the 1st, 5th, 10th and 15th centuries A.D. Dr. Wheeler stated:
"The turning points (between old and new civilizations) occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity."
Dr. Wheeler designed a "clock" of the cycles of Cold, Drought, and Civil War, illustrated in Figure 6.3. The 170-year Cycle
of Civil War and the 510-year Cycle of Drought intersect at 1999, at which time we can expect another engulfing crisis. (15,
16)
Another 510-year pattern occurs in the rhythm of world dominance, alternating between the East and West. In the 510 years
after about 670 BC, when the Greek and Ptolemaic empires declined, Rome entered into its peak of development. After 60 BC,
Rome weakened while Asian empires developed. After 450 A.D., the Byzantine and Oriental powers declined, and Charlemagne's
empire grew, as did Britain. The next 510 years were dominated by Eastern power (Genghis and Kublai Khan, etc.). After 1470,
Europe unified and extended its imperial dominion over the earth, and the United States came into power.
The next great shift of power is to the East and is exemplified by the ascendancy of China, Japan, and Russia. We are now
in the 27th cold-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle since 540 BC, and the first such since the 1800s. This is also the
fifth --- and coldest --- phase of the 6th 500-year cycle of weather determined by Dr. Wheeler. Also, we are approaching the
climax of a 1,000-year weather cycle that will produce record high temperatures during the first half of the 21st century.
Furthermore, according to Dr. Wheeler, there are possible indications that we are in a period of "reversal" of the alternate
1,000-year weather cycle, in which the evolution of humanity will take a leap forward:
"A new and probably different series of species of similar general form will begin soon, and thus the Earth is about to
begin a new phase of history.
"Old civilizations collapse and new civilizations are born on the tide of climatic change. The turning points occur when
cold-dry times reach their maximum severity.
"The problem is to expand democracy by voluntary means, preserving democratic institutions and laws while the expansion
process is being achieved. Now, during the next few decades, this new and powerful class of voters, the laborers, must, in
a sense, be absorbed into the middle class and be given middle-class concepts of free enterprise and democracy. While assuming
greater responsibility, they must experience success in helping democracy work, or else, when it turns warm again and centralizing
trends are under way once more, there will be nothing but stagnation and ruin ahead. If this happens, the next warm period
will produce a despotism as catastrophic for modern civilizations of Greece and Rome.
"By the proper emphasis upon education in our schools and by the proper cooperation between capital and management on one
hand and labor on the other, such a catastrophe can be prevented. During the next few decades when both the middle class and
labor are democratically minded is the time to stabilize our institutions --- enriched by the contributions and cooperation
of labor --- to the end that they will not collapse in the warm periods to come.
"The conflict between labor and management contains no necessary threat to society and will not culminate in socialism
or communism. When viewed in the light of historical ecology, it is only the next step and expected in the evolution of true
democracy. The net result of the revolution will, in the end, be greater opportunity and freedom for all classes.
"Three main facts pertain to the rise and fall of governments, that, all through the investigation, were so invariable
and their relationship to climate so precise as to challenge any attempt at explanation in general terms
"First, there were the occurrences of Golden Ages, the rise of strong governments under superior leaders, the outburst
of international wars on climatic upswings from long cold periods into the warm-wet phase of the climatic cycle.
"Second, the decline, onset of decadence, the growing excesses of centralized government, the emergence of dictators, tyranny,
fanaticism, communism, and socialism, as the warm epoch continued, and as temperatures and dryness increased.
"Third, the occurrence of civil wars, rebellions, and revolutions, the origin and growth of democratic institutions and
individualism, during cold periods... No law of chance can explain the fact that undemocratic trends are invariably associated
with the warmer climatic phases, and democratic trends with the colder phases. No law of chance can explain why international
wars so consistently predominate on the warm side and civil wars on the cold. Relationship so consistent, universal and precise
point directly to a causal factor or set of causal factors."
Dr. Wheeler also found that a slight average annual temperature change will produce profound changes in human behavior:
"A difference in mean annual temperature of no greater than 1.5 F, when prevailing consistently for no longer than half
a decade, is sufficient, anywhere on earth, to start changes in the human behavior pattern in one direction or the other."
Dr. Ellsworth Huntington determined the optimum temperatures for human performance to be 38 F for mental activity, and
68-70 F for physical action. The best climate for the full range of human life ranges between the mean annual temperatures
of 2-47 F At this time the zones with such an optimal temperature range extend from Great Britain across Europe to the Black
Sea and the Ural Mountains, across North America between southern Canada and the northeast and northwest USA, and Japan. The
area of optimal temperature can be extended to include central China, the northern parts of Africa and South America, southeast
Australia, and New Zealand.
The mean global temperature has decreased over 2.7 Fsince 1945. Meanwhile, the Arctic and Antarctic ice covers have increased
over 15% since 1966, and glaciers in North America and Europe have begun to advance again, whereas until 1940 they had been
retreating. These and many other weather signs indicate that e are now in a Cold-Dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle,
and may even be entering into a mini-Ice Age.
