Make your own free website on Tripod.com








TOOLS OF THE TRADE

Nikolai Kondratieff CYCLES














Home | REDISCOVERING GANNS LAW OF VIBRATION | THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 3 | THE "DOW THEORY" CON! PART 2 | PITAGORAS INTERNACIONAL SA. SITES MAP! | THE "DOW THEORY" CON PART 1 | BUT LONG JOHN, IT BE A BOTTOM! YES, INDEED, YOUNG JIM, BUT THERE BE BOTTOMS,AND THERE BE BOTTOMS! | The "Chicago School" really began in the 1920s with the diumvurate of Frank H. Knight and Jacob Vine | A TALE OF TWO STRATEGIES, OR HOW THE US AIRLINE INDUSTRY BLEW IT! | GANN FORETOLD RUN OF STOCKS | ANOTHER TRADING TOOL BITES THE DUST, COMPLIMENTS OF THE LONG ONLY COMMODITY FUNDS! | How To Trade With The Trend | Recent Interview with Sir John Templeton | Speculation As A Fine Art: An Early Trend Follower! | Frank H. Knight, 1885-1972. THE GREAT AMERICAN ECONOMIST FROM THE REAL CHICAGO SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS. | FIND OUT ABOUT OUR NEW SERVICE, THE TRENDTRACKER copyright 2005! | OUR LATEST SPECIAL REPORT IS NOW AVAILABLE! THIS IS A MUST READ FOR THOSE WITH 401(k)S, OR IRAS. | William D. Gann | William. D. Gann & Pythagoras | How Important is the Trend? | Sir John Templeton | Recent Interview with Sir John Templeton | The Theory of Reflexivity by George Soros | THE "GREAT " AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST! Joseph Alois Schumpeter | Raymond H Wheeler CYCLES | Alexander L. Chizhevsky CYCLES | Nikolai Kondratieff CYCLES | Rhythms of the Universe CYCLES | GREAT RULES FOR TRADING | W. D. GANN- MARKET MASTER | W. D. GANN 'S RULES FOR TRADING | HOW YOU MUST APPROACH TRADING | W. D. GANN | INTRODUCTION TO W. D. GANN | W. D. GANN'S APPROACH DEFINED | SUPERIORITY OF W. D. GANN'S TECHNIQUES | COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS REPORT





Nikolai Kondratieff
















Nikolai Kondratieff

Nikolai Dmytriyevich Kondratieff (1892-1930?) worked in the Agricultural Academy and Business Research Institute in Moscow. His research covered the major economies of the time: the USA, Great Britain, Germany and France. He first considered wholesale prices and then looked at interest rates, wages and foreign trade. Finally he analysed data on the production and consumption of coal, pig iron and lead. He adjusted production figures to allow for population change and used a moving average (nine years) to remove statistical `noise.' Kondratieff thought that the presence of the long wave was probable but could not be specific as to its cause, deeming it to be inherent in a capitalist economy. He postulated that it could arise because of the wearing out of capital goods but he admitted that lack of reliable data curtailed conclusive verification. Critics have attacked his methodology.

What was dangerously unacceptable to his Communist masters was the idea that there was an inherent self-correcting mechanism perpetuating capitalism. He was banished to the Gulag where he was quickly condemned to solitary confinement. He became mentally ill and died.

Again, it was posthumous publication that drew attention to his work. His work was translated into English in 1935 (a German translation had been printed outside Russia in 1926 but it did not attract much attention at the time). There were two waves in wholesale prices during the nineteenth century in the USA of about 50 years each that could conform to Kondratieff's waveform. Both became identified as Kondratieff cycles and consequently his work was given prominence in America.

A 50- to 60-year economic cycle was observed by a Dutchman, Van Gelderen in 1913 although there is no evidence of a connection with Kondratieff. W.H.Beveridge (1879-1963), later Lord Beveridge, studied wheat prices back to the 1500's and is reputed to have deduced them back to 1260. He discovered many cycles, publishing his findings in 1921 and 1923 (three years earlier than Kondratieff). One of these cycles occurred every 50 to 60 years, with an average periodicity of 54 years.

The long wave rhythm, which varies from 45 to 60 years, has attained its periodicity from averaging a wide distribution. It is widely known as the `Kondratieff wave' or, less elegantly the `K-wave.'

TO RETURN TO THE TOOLS OF THE TRADE MAIN SITE
















What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words. Philip K. Dick